Each child make a survival roll each year until he reaches 15.
He dies on 1-2 on a 1D20 roll.

So basic probability to reach 15 is 0.9 exp 15 = 20.58%

Isn't it too low !?

Each child make a survival roll each year until he reaches 15.
He dies on 1-2 on a 1D20 roll.
So basic probability to reach 15 is 0.9 exp 15 = 20.58%
Isn't it too low !?

I am not sure what you mean by low.
However, as explained in the Book of the ESTATE that is going to be available very, very soon
You only need to check this for the first 7 years

Each child make a survival roll each year until he reaches 15.
He dies on 1-2 on a 1D20 roll.
So basic probability to reach 15 is 0.9 exp 15 = 20.58%
Isn't it too low !?

I am not sure what you mean by low.
However, as explained in the Book of the ESTATE that is going to be available very, very soon
You only need to check this for the first 7 years


Ah, interesting ! i will directly apply it now !
By low, i mean too high mortality : 80% of the born childs die before reaching 15.
Is it "historical" ?
Anyway i think it makes too difficult in game to have a son who will be quickly the player's next character after his father's death.

By low, i mean too high mortality : 80% of the born childs die before reaching 15.
Is it "historical" ?

No one really knows the historical survival rate. The assumed survival rate is based on the study of a French village. 40% died age 1-20, if they survived to 20 the women lived to 65 and the men to 67. This is of course a small sample and has a high chance of being locally weighted. England was sparsely populated compared to France during the middle ages, so they would have had better food and nutrition than the French.

Using a death rate of 5% rather than 10% and not giving any chance of avoiding a check by high living gets one close to an historical survival rate - provided one checks just for the first 7 years.

Survival Rate
1 year old 95%
2 year old 90.25%
3 year old 89.79875%
4 year old 85.3088125%
5 year old 81.043371875%
6 year old 72.9390346875%
7 year old 69.292082953125%

Thanks for this detailed answer.


The assumed survival rate is based on the study of a French village. 40% died age 1-20, if they survived to 20 the women lived to 65 and the men to 67.

For which period(s) are these stats ?

Thanks for this detailed answer.


The assumed survival rate is based on the study of a French village. 40% died age 1-20, if they survived to 20 the women lived to 65 and the men to 67.

For which period(s) are these stats ?


Those are the real assumed death rates rather than KAP ones.

Thanks for this detailed answer.


The assumed survival rate is based on the study of a French village. 40% died age 1-20, if they survived to 20 the women lived to 65 and the men to 67.

For which period(s) are these stats ?


Those are the real assumed death rates rather than KAP ones.

I understood, my question was : is it for 21 or 20th century, or middle ages, or other ?
I presume there was no such stats in middle ages...

Thanks for this detailed answer.


The assumed survival rate is based on the study of a French village. 40% died age 1-20, if they survived to 20 the women lived to 65 and the men to 67.

For which period(s) are these stats ?


Those are the real assumed death rates rather than KAP ones.

I understood, my question was : is it for 21 or 20th century, or middle ages, or other ?
I presume there was no such stats in middle ages...


The real middle ages. Of course the Black death broke out in the middle ages and once in Europe broke out again about every 20 years, but killed fewer and fewer people each time it did. Those first encountering it thought it killed 50% of everyone, but the modern estimates are that it killed only 25% striking mainly those in cities, children and the old. I would just use the KAP rules for it even though they're too deadly. Greg is a "killer game designer" - which is part of his charm, as there's real suspense in KAP, unlike Dungeon and Dragons where PC hardly ever die and be they do a raise dead spell will bring them back.

On proposal I had made earlier in my campaign (but was not adopted) was to apply the "child dies" result only if the child was ill the previous year. This gives the "child was ill" result more mechanical bite, and reduces the mortality rate to a slightly more reasonable number (46% survival). Getting a child survival bump from Rich living still remains well worth it, though (68% survival).

On proposal I had made earlier in my campaign (but was not adopted) was to apply the "child dies" result only if the child was ill the previous year. This gives the "child was ill" result more mechanical bite, and reduces the mortality rate to a slightly more reasonable number (46% survival). Getting a child survival bump from Rich living still remains well worth it, though (68% survival).


Interesting, but what do you do if you roll "child dies" without being ill previous year ? Do you say he is ill, or nothing ?

In Our Campaign, we have used the following pretty much from the beginning:
1st year: Child dies on 1-5.
2nd to 5th year: Child dies on 1-2.
6th+ years: No rolling necessary.

This for us, gave a reasonable number: 49% survival rate or 1-in-2. Also, it reflected that the first year is the most dangerous one for a child. By cutting one fourth out in first and stopping the rolling after 5 years of age, it also cut down the clutter of family rolls.

As it happens, 10% chance of death until 7 years gives a survival rate of 48%. :)

Rich knight's children: 65% (Ours) / 70% (BoE)

Superlative knight's children: 81% (Ours, treating a modifier less than one as 50% mortality if one rolls 1)

Im more concerned with Wives dying in childbirth which seems to happen disturbingly frequently.

Im more concerned with Wives dying in childbirth which seems to happen disturbingly frequently.


Depends also on the size of your playgroup, how often the ladies drop in childbirth. The rules give 10% per year, which means that half of the women die within 7 years of their marriage, having produced on average 3 children. That might be a bit harsh (but there are also those women who live longer). And once you have 5 or so players, each rolling for their wives yearly, the chances are that you see a wife fatality every other year or so.

I would be inclined to extend some plot protection for the 'named' ladies, who have been espoused at great length and risk of adventure. There is a reason that many fairytales end with 'and they lived happily ever after' instead of 'and she died in childbirth before the year was out'. A great healer whose help they must enlist by making promises of future favors / immediate quests, that sort of thing.

On the other hand, the wife's death is also an opportunity to marry again, and likely better. This is especially the case for knights who likely married young, while they were relative unknowns, but have now risen to the Round Table and are famous throughout the land.

If you were to lower the chance of death in childbirth to 5% (simply change the mother & child dies in childbirth, which is a double blow, to the child dies in childbirth), then half of the wives survive 14 years and produce (assuming you use the rulebook childbirth table rather than Greg's modified one on his website) 5 - 6 children. That would do it, I think.

A sort of compromise between the default option and the one mentioned above would be for the wife to do a CON roll. On a success, she just gets an Aging roll rather than dying. And it would give some point to trying to find a very healthy wife. I believe I have seen something like that suggested on these forums before.

EDIT: An unmodified CON roll wouldn't really be a compromise as such... But you could tie it to the economic circumstances. Assuming that most Cymric ladies have CON 13, this is already a 67% improvement in their survival without modifiers. Making it -15 for Impoverished, -10 for Ordinary, -5 for Rich and unmodified for Superlative would give those ladies on higher tiers of support a fighting chance. Adding +5 to those modifiers to be more lenient would mean that Superlative ladies seldom if ever die in Childbirth, although those Aging rolls might take their toll, but it would give even Ordinary ladies a reasonable chance to survive.