I'm trying to figure out how powerful Duke Ulfius is during the Anarchy. Consulting the Book of the Warlord, it's obvious that the old wolf must be hurting pretty badly, as many of his holdings are spread across Logres and will get gobbled up by competitors when the central authority breaks down. Greg has said that the great barons outliers are simply lost during the Anarchy. Ulfius' caput major is in Caerwent, but we associate him most with Silchester and I definitely get the impression that he's recovering from the Battle of St Albans there. So what is the fate of his far-flung holdings? It could be assumed that maybe family members are holding on to key parcels, but that doesn't necessarily reflect how many troops he can personally raise — they're need to defend those lands and we can discount much of those troops from his potential army.

Likewise, his other holdings in Linden, Clarence, Huntland, Berroc, and Wuenrensis are likely too far away and vulnerable; Caercolun and Hantonne are taken over by Saxons early on, and Idres takes Tintagel and Ascalon.

On the other hand, I get the impression that Ulfius gets fairly aggressive in Salisbury after he recover from his wounds at St Albans. He starts gobbling up holdings in the northern part of the county (previosuly held by King Uther and other lords other than Count Roderick) in order to hold them until a king returns. In my campaign, he's also consolidating his power in Silchester and he also puts down the Wallingfords in Rhydychan. So, while he's realized terrible losses, he also expands his holdings in other areas through conquest.

So, naturally it's impossible for me to make calculations ala Warlord on the Duke's power. As a general guideline, we can see that Salisbury's holding are reduced to a little less than half, when you remove his outliers from the calculations.

Using this rule of thumb alone, it would be tempting to reduce Ulfius' troops to about fifty knights.

If you go strictly by the numbers, after reducing all of the lands far removed from Silchester you're left with:

Straightfield Manor, Silchester: £27.2
Levcomagus Manor, Silchester: £18.5

and possibly Ramstown hundred in Gentian: £54.6

That's about £100, which only works out to about ten knights. Desperate indeed. Or course, that would be offset by the aforementioned wins in Salisbury and Rhydychan.

So, anyone have any other ideas on the Duke's power, or how to get to a reasonable number of knights for his army? I need to know because he may be allying with Countess Ellen at some point, so I'm trying to get to an overall troop count. FWIW, I have the Countess being able to field about 70 knights early in the Anarchy, down from Roderick's 150 in Warlord. Even in that book, Ulfies could field fewer knights (124) than the Count.

Thanks,


T.

Remember that it cuts both ways. If Ulfius loses his holdings in other counties (and Berroc and Huntland are right next to Silchester, so I would not put it past him to hang onto those), then there must be plenty of other barons' outliers, not to mention the royal lands right there in Silchester that he can take over 'until the King returns'. Ufius is one of the surviving dukes and represents what vestiges of royal power remains, and he has a reputation as a skilled warleader, too. I think he would be able to consolidate Silchester and even some neighboring counties quickly enough, before the Saxons come knocking.

In GPC, he has an alliance of sorts with Sussex for quite some time, and holds London as well. This hints to me that he is a regional warlord in those parts, having consolidated most of the lands outside the ones overrun by Saxons. In the Countess of Rydychan adventure of Lordly Domains, Ulfius supports the Countess' claim, and in our campaign, this translated to Rydychan becoming Ulfius' vassal, too. Gentian/Marlboro, while technically independent, is pretty much just following what Ulfius decides to do.

I might also point out that in 503 (? I think it was) Ulfius is strong enough to try to contest the Saxons for London. He fails, but this hints that he probably has enough men (and knights) to make a tough nut for any individual Saxon Kingdom, certainly moreso than Salisbury alone.

EDIT: Yep, I checked it from GPC, and Ulfius is trying to engage Essex while Kent is on the other side of the river. So clearly, he thinks he can take Essex with a reasonable chance of success. He only retreats when the Saxons manage to join up their two armies.

Thanks, Morien. So, where would you guesstimate his numbers, based on pre-Anarchy Warlord levels and all other things considered?

In general everyone loses their outliers, and takes over all others' outliers nearby
as Morien said, they become powerful local groups
Look at the castle list and you can get another idea of how things are taken over locally

I see Ulfuis as one of the most powerful British lords after grabbing up local parcels, and having local lords all swear homage to him (a homage with the the phrase "unill the return of a king")

Thanks, Greg — I understand. What i'm looking for is best guesstimates to army strength since we don't have sufficient data to actually calculate holdings in the Anarchy. So I've mentioned that Roderick was actually cut to less than 50% of his strength (in terms of knights and foot soldiers) compared to pre-Anarchy levels. So is this a good rule of thumb? Just cut Ulfius 50-60%, knowing that he will get a little stronger year-by-year as he reconsolidates, etc.? I'm just looking for a reasonable rule-of-thumb. The only thing I have to compare him to is Count Salisbury.


Thanks,


T.

Thanks, Morien. So, where would you guesstimate his numbers, based on pre-Anarchy Warlord levels and all other things considered?

Well, I probably did calculate it at some point, but you know me, I am fine with the magnitude estimate as long as it is my own campaign.

Looking at the numbers in 4th edition (which, admittedly, are about 30 years in the future, AD 531), Silchester itself has about 150 knights and 1000 soldiers. Rydychan adds another 60 knights and 150 soldiers. London has 70 knights and 1000 soldiers, but this is when the city is booming. During Anarchy, I feel halving those numbers would be safer. In addition, he might hold bits of Hantonne (Hampshire), and Berroc and Gentian probably follow his lead, too. So as a magnitude estimate, something like 300 knights and 1500 foot soldiers seems about right.

Once he gets pushed out of London by Kent and Essex, and from Hantonne by increased pressure from Wessex and Sussex, towards the mid-500s, I'd say that his strength drops to maybe 200 knights and 1000 soldiers. Still a power, but clearly weaker than he was, and surrounded by no less than 5 hostile Saxon Kingdoms, no wonder he turns to Nanteleod for help.

Another quick estimate using BotW Hundred numbers has:
Silchester 28
Rydychan 37
Thamesmouth 16
Berroc 12
Gentian 21
Hantonne 35 (guestimating Ulfius has about 20 of these around 497)
Total: 28+37+16+12+21+20 = 124

Now, the total number of Hundreds in Logres is 541, and the income is about £32 000, just taking a quick average tells us that each Hundred is about £60. This would give Ulfius a landholding worth around £7200, but of course he is not holding EVERYTHING in there, since there are churches and other local landholders. But assuming that calculation holds water, he might have a significant army of about 600 knights and 1200 foot soldiers (with an additional garrison of 600 foot soldiers). This feels a wee bit high, but not totally impossible, especially when you consider that this is his theoretical army, if he strips all of his castles of knights and neglects border patrols, and that his vassals & allies answer his call. This kind of a force would explain how he is pretty much able to hold his own for a decade, before the Saxons finally get their act together and start cooperating.

EDIT: The other way of calculating it is that Ulfius has about a fifth of the hundreds of Logres, so having about a fifth of the army would make sense, so around 500 knights. Actually, I would not be surprised if the number of knights increases, as there is no overhead for the sumptuous royal court. Even if the 600 would be on the high side, but 400 - 500 knights with their attendant foot soldiers is still a significant army, clearly a tough opponent against the Saxons and much mightier than Salisbury.

Thanks, Greg — I understand. What i'm looking for is best guesstimates to army strength since we don't have sufficient data to actually calculate holdings in the Anarchy. So I've mentioned that Roderick was actually cut to less than 50% of his strength (in terms of knights and foot soldiers) compared to pre-Anarchy levels. So is this a good rule of thumb? Just cut Ulfius 50-60%, knowing that he will get a little stronger year-by-year as he reconsolidates, etc.? I'm just looking for a reasonable rule-of-thumb. The only thing I have to compare him to is Count Salisbury.


I'd say that is NOT a reasonable metric. If anything, I see Ulfius becoming STRONGER in Anarchy, as he takes over the royal lands and other barons' outliers in his vicinity. He has the experience, the authority and the manpower to do it, and consolidate his own little 'sub-kingdom'. Whereas Salisbury with their female leadership and a boy count are unable to consolidate as aggressively, lacking the same powerbase and authority as the Duke of the Vale does. The local knights have been taking Ulfius' orders for 15 years. He is their natural liegelord in the king's absence.